Will Johnson Stand?

I'm quite enjoying that Johnson's bid is failing. If he'd had 100 MPs it would be all over the news. As it isn't on the news, at least now that certain reporters are behaving themselves, it's unlikely that he has, and the reason is because he's seen as toxic to many, both inside and outside his party. 

Many are commenting that he will not confirm he is standing until he has 100 MPs to avoid the embarrassment of failure. 

As I mentioned yesterday, he's still being investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Committee (PSC). If he gets in and is found guilty, it's game over. The Tory Party will itself be seen as toxic and will be consigned to the opposition benches for years. Even former ERG Chair, Steve Baker says so.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1584090871623929856

Confusingly, Jacob Rees-Mogg is doing the media rounds supporting Johnson, so this indicates a split at the highest levels. Is this below the waterline, do you think? Can they heal the divisions once a leader is elected? I don't think they can. They've never seemed able to in the past and I think the public are used to seeing Tory infighting. Sadly, they are so used to it many see it as acceptable.

Back to Johnson, even if he's found innocent by the PSC he can't change and true to form, some other drama will happen. All of which will be remembered at the next General Election (GE) as well as the original reasons for which he was forced to resign. Let me recap on those briefly, he didn't run the government well (an understatement!), missed the initial five COBRA meetings at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was Partygate where he and a number of MPs attended gatherings despite the strict lockdown rules, where many of the public were fined £10,000. And, of course, there was the Chris Pincher incident. He was Johnson's Chief Whip who was accused of groping two men that Johnson claimed he didn't know about, but it was later revealed he did. 

So should he stand? No.

Sunak

If Rishi Sunak is successful and there's no membership vote, the Tories will implode. It may take a while but Sunak was not their first choice last time around and it remains to be seen how he is received. If there is a membership vote, the Tories will probably implode because many still want Johnson.

In a strange way, it looks to me as if the Tories will last for a while, if they get past New Year they may last from a few months to the next GE, but will eventually be eviscerated. If the Tories can't coalesce around Sunak, then the failure may come sooner and an early General Election will be held. 

Mordaunt

I don't think her campaign will matter other than acting as a basket of nominations to be give to someone else when they need the numbers. Will she pass to Sunak or Johnson? Given that she's denied deal talks with Johnson's team and that she "doesn't want to play second fiddle in Sunak's campaign" it's hard to say.  

Overall

The question is, how much reputational damage do the Tories want to receive before they finally realise the best thing they can do is call a General Election now? The electorate are tired, they are looking at the wreckage of the economy and the world is laughing at the UK. The Tories need to get this right or they'll never see government again for generations to come.

https://twitter.com/Is_Richardson/status/1584205231792877568